Both in Cuba and as here in the United States, many Cubans are wondering what will happen on the island if the government of Nicolas Maduro falls next 2016 under the influence of a recall of its mandate, which could promote a new National Assembly if the Venezuelan people introduce collected signatures to the National Electoral Council. The concern for Cubans is evident, if the former happens and Venezuela ceases to be the leading supplier of oil to Havana, what are the Castros are going to do in order to solve the situation?

Caracas worse the Havana

This writer, who lived nearly twenty years in Venezuela, working as a journalist in the private and public media, knows that Caracas is now worse than Havana. To name just one example, the dollar is overvalued as it was in Cuba during the 1990s. President Maduro needs to institute changes and dialog with the opposition, or this will have a lasting effect as his Godfather Raul Castro well knows. The Cuban government was only waiting for the results of the December 6th polls, to "change the batteries" and accelerate their business with the Americans. Castro knows that if the flow of oil from Venezuela is cut and not replaced by another supplier to the Caribbean island, this will herald a return to the hardest years of the Special Period (1993-1998) that still exists in many aspects of the Cuban economy.

A bad copy of Fidel Castro and with no talent

In any corner or park from Cuba's cities, the overwhelming electoral defeat of the ruling party in Venezuela is the subject of conversation. For many Cubans, Maduro is a mediocre manager. Many are saying he is a "bad copy of Fidel Castro and with no talent".

Some pray for him to continue governing until 2019 and the island continues receiving Venezuelan oil, saying, "You'd think if they return to blackouts, horse wagons and bicycles ... the government would be left alone, because we would go from here it doesn't care how."

New Migration

The exodus has already begun, as seen in the actual migration crisis when thousands of migrants from the island were stranded on the border with Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Unfortunately, although a majority segment of Cubans feel more repulsion for socialist system than Venezuelans, because the Caribbean has suffered it for nearly six decades, 57 years of chronic and unproductive nursing by the Soviet subsidy first and then by the Venezuelan oil, have also have cemented a culture of drones in millions of Cubans.

Those born after 1959 thought that modern imperialism and capitalism would vanish in the XXI century as we learned in Cuban universities, but it was the opposite. For years, Cuba lived from money and oil from the former Soviet Union. When Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999, he returned the subsidy for an important part of Cuba's economy after the island crossed the desert for a decade.

Power or progress

As is known, the Castros hold the guiding principles for a new Latin American left. In a proverbial magical pass, with an economy in ruins and safes in the red, they have managed to export its best and most effective weapon: govern without opposition for a long time. The reality has been a crisis model of the populist left in Latin America. Raul Castro, more farsighted than his brother Fidel, negotiated an advantageous deal with the United States and the European Union almost without offering anything in return, at least for anything of public knowledge.

Castro holds an interest in power, preferably with an ideological ally such as Venezuela. But if Maduro loses his power, he has a “plan B” 90 miles north from Cuba. #World Politics