With July barely over, #NASA is trumpeting that 2016 is on track to be the hottest year ever, even though the satellite record is telling us something quite different. Indeed, July 2016 is continuing the trend of temperatures returning to normal now that the recent #El Niño has officially ended. El Niños are naturally occurring events where the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than normal for an extended period and can influence climate across the globe.
We've all heard how El Nino is (at least partially) to blame for our mild winter. But exactly what is El Nino? https://t.co/QZb3lb7ZJK— Connecticut BioBlitz (@CTBioBlitz16) May 10, 2016
Satellites show much less warming
The UAH (University of Alabama/Huntsville) satellite dataset has been measuring the lower troposphere since 1979 and is accurate to within .001 degrees Celsius. It was hailed as the “gold standard” by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) until it stopped showing a well-documented global warming pause (or hiatus). According to the preliminary analysis done by climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer, who has just released satellite temperature data for July 2016, the global cooling that started last month is still underway. Albeit slower after this particularly massive El Niño. He shows that July 2016 was 0.39 degrees Celsius (0.70°F) higher than average, up .05 degrees from the June 2016 value of 0.34 degrees Celsius (0.61°F), but still a marked decline from its peak of 0.83 degrees Celsius (1.49°F) in February 2016.
Despite the constant barrage of hottest-year-ever claims and ridiculous climate change predictions, Dr. Spencer believes that 2016 is “unlikely” to be a record warm year in the satellite record. Meanwhile, the constant assertions of impending doom in this contentious election cycle simply aren’t occurring.
La Niña on the way
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have already dropped 0.74 degrees Celsius (1.33°F) as it transitions to a La Niña (cooler-than-normal ocean water). This same cooling is also underway in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there’s a 55 to 60 percent chance a La Niña will form during the fall and winter of 2016 and 2017. That’s down from a confidence level of 75 percent a few months ago.
Jiggering the temperature data
NASA’s land and sea surface temperatures, heavily altered to produce a warming effect this century, show that temperatures have warmed 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.72°F) since 1998. But the UAH satellite record shows temperatures have flatlined with the 2015-2016 El Niño taken into account.
According to analysis done by Real Climate #Science’s Tony Heller, NASA’s altered temperature dataset is diverging from the satellite record by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.34°F) per century. He notes the Arctic, another area with few temperature reading stations, has been unusually cold this summer, with an average temperature of minus 20 degrees Celsius. You wouldn't know that from the readings supplied by NASA.
Tipping the scales
Heller points out that under the current Administration, NASA and NOAA have been given free rein to muddle with the temperature record, with little to no consequences. Other scientists have tried to challenge the obvious temperature tampering in peer-reviewed journals with middling success. And this tipping the scales will endure as long as activist climatologists worry more about their legacies and less about the science. #Climate Change #Environment